This guide is for custom and stock packaging suppliers: corrugated and folding carton converters, flexible packaging and label printers, rigid plastic and molded fiber makers, and distributors of stock packaging. The goal is not website traffic. It is a sample request, a quote and, in time, a share of a brand’s packaging spend.
The short version
- AI is already in packaging procurement: in L.E.K. Consulting’s 2026 study (opens in a new tab) of 450 US brand owners, around 69% had adopted AI in procurement and sourcing, second only to product development.
- Brands keep a second supplier: roughly 91% multisource their packaging, about 64% use a primary and a secondary supplier for a format, and around 27% use three or more, per L.E.K.’s sourcing findings (opens in a new tab).
- Almost every brand is about to change its packaging: roughly 99% expect changes over the next three years, led by sustainability, aesthetics and shelf life, according to the same L.E.K. study (opens in a new tab).
- Rules are forcing redesigns: the EU’s packaging regulation applies from 12 August 2026 (opens in a new tab), and seven US states have packaging extended producer responsibility (EPR) laws, with Oregon’s fees ranging from $0.01 to $2.73 per pound across 60 materials, per L.E.K.’s EPR analysis (opens in a new tab).
- The market is large and shifting: Smithers (opens in a new tab) projects US packaging consumption of $255.4 billion to $279.6 billion in 2030, depending on tariffs, while L.E.K. forecasts the share of US packaging sourced from abroad to fall to 10% by 2028.
Who buys packaging, and what is a customer worth?
Brand managers, packaging engineers and procurement teams at consumer brands, and each win is a share of a format’s spend.
Packaging is bought by the companies that put products on shelves and doorsteps: food, beverage, beauty, household, health and electronics brands, plus restaurants and foodservice chains. Inside those companies, a brand manager cares about how the pack looks and sells, a packaging engineer cares about barrier, strength and line speed, and a procurement manager cares about cost, lead time and supply risk. Across business buying generally, Forrester (opens in a new tab) finds procurement professionals are decision-makers in 53% of buying cycles.
The buyers care a great deal. In L.E.K.’s 2026 US study, 98% of respondents rated packaging as highly important to brand success, and micro and challenger brands put the most weight on it. That matters for suppliers that serve small brands with low minimums, because those buyers are often the ones searching without a procurement department.
What a customer is worth depends on the format and the volume, and no public benchmark gives an average account value. The shape of the prize is clearer. Among brands that use a primary and a secondary supplier, L.E.K. found about half give the primary supplier 65% to 75% of the spend for that format. Our inference: a supplier that wins a secondary slot has a realistic path to a larger share later, and one well-matched quote request can turn into years of repeat print and production runs.
The market behind those accounts is moving. Smithers expects global packaging demand to reach $1.52 trillion by 2030, and warns that rigid plastics and flexible packaging, which lean heavily on imports, face the sharpest cost increases from tariffs. Brand owners are responding by buying closer to home: L.E.K. forecasts that by 2028 the share of packaging sourced from outside the US will be just 10%, half of 2019 levels. Every one of those moves starts with a search for a new supplier.
Where does AI already sit in packaging sourcing?
In supplier research and early comparison, where most brand owners already use it and plan to use more.
The packaging-specific evidence comes from L.E.K.’s eighth annual brand owner survey, run in late 2025 and early 2026:
| US brand owners, 2026 (L.E.K. Consulting) | Share |
|---|---|
| Aware of AI use in procurement and sourcing | about 82% |
| Have adopted AI in procurement and sourcing | about 69% |
| Have adopted AI in product development | about 74% |
| Use B2B customer portals with suppliers today | about 79% |
| Expect to use B2B customer portals within three years | about 94% |
| Use AI in customer-focused marketing, today and planned | about 52%, rising to 88% |
The survey does not say which AI tools brand owners use for sourcing, or whether they ask public assistants such as ChatGPT or Gemini for supplier names. It does show that AI is now part of how packaging buyers research and compare, and that large brands are investing in it: L.E.K. cites a generative AI tool that Nestlé R&D built with IBM Research to identify new high-barrier packaging materials.
Packaging engineers behave like other technical buyers. In the 2026 State of Marketing to Engineers research (opens in a new tab) by GlobalSpec and TREW Marketing, which covers engineers across industries rather than packaging alone, 69% of technical buyers used generative AI during purchasing, they rated their trust in its answers 4.7 out of 10, and 62% of the buying process happened online before they contacted a vendor.
Industrial directories still matter too. Thomas’ 2025 sourcing report, summarized by Distribution Strategy Group (opens in a new tab), found food and beverage buyers concentrated on food ingredients, shrink and stretch packaging and contract manufacturing. The platform reports more than 1.5 million monthly sourcing sessions. Directory profiles are also pages an assistant can find and quote.
What do packaging buyers ask AI assistants?
They describe a product, a material, a use and a rule, then ask who can make it at their volume.
None of the questions below were captured from real buyers; we wrote them to show the shape of a packaging sourcing request.
| What the brand needs | Sample sourcing question (our wording) |
|---|---|
| Material and application | “Recyclable mono-material pouch suppliers for whole-bean coffee in the US” |
| Low minimums | “Custom printed mailer boxes for a skin care startup, under 2,000 units” |
| Compliance | “PFAS-free molded fiber takeout containers for restaurants in Washington state” |
| Regional supply | “Corrugated box makers near Chicago with digital printing for short runs” |
| Redesign | “Alternatives to multilayer plastic film that still keep snacks fresh for six months” |
| Regulation | “Which packaging formats are likely to meet the EU recyclability rules?” |
Each question is a filter. If your site, directory listings and trade coverage never state your substrates, barrier options, food-contact status, print methods, minimum order quantities or plant locations, an assistant has nothing to match against.
Wording also changes the answer. In our prompt phrasing study, asking the same question again kept the same first-named brand 68.0% of the time, but adding “on a tight budget” kept it only 15.3%. Packaging buyers often add constraints like that, such as a low minimum, a deadline or a price ceiling. We infer that suppliers who state their minimums, lead times and price-relevant facts plainly give assistants more to work with when a question narrows.
How does an AI answer become a quote request and an award?
Through a longlist, a website check, samples and quotes, line trials, and a share of the format’s spend.
- Longlisted. A packaging engineer or buyer asks an assistant, a directory or a search engine which suppliers can make a format in a material at a volume. The answer is a starting list.
- Checked. The buyer visits supplier websites to confirm materials, certifications, printing, capacity and location. Most of this happens before anyone calls.
- Sampled and quoted. The supplier gets a request for samples and pricing, usually alongside rivals. Dielines, artwork and specifications move back and forth.
- Trialed. The pack runs on the brand’s filling or packing line and goes through shipping, shelf-life or retailer tests.
- Awarded. The supplier becomes primary or secondary for that format, with a share of the spend and repeat orders as long as quality, cost and supply hold.
An assistant’s answer can only touch the longlist and the website check. Price, quality, lead time and line performance decide the rest. Because roughly 91% of brand owners multisource, being named as a credible second option is often the realistic first win.
What decides whether an assistant names a packaging supplier?
Facts it can find and confirm in other sources; the platforms document how they search, not how they pick suppliers.
What the platforms document: OpenAI says (opens in a new tab) ChatGPT search typically rewrites a question into one or more targeted queries sent to search providers, and that a site must allow OpenAI’s search crawler, OAI-SearchBot, to be eligible for inclusion. Google says (opens in a new tab) AI Mode uses a “query fan-out” technique that runs multiple related searches across subtopics and data sources. Neither explains how specific suppliers are chosen.
What has been observed in our studies, across several industries rather than packaging alone:
- Several searches sit behind each answer. In our study of hidden searches, ChatGPT ran a mean of 3.7 searches per buyer question before answering.
- Outside mentions carry weight. Our brand entity study found that a brand named on ten times as many independent sites within the cited pages had 4.7 times the odds of being recommended.
- Answers change between runs. In our consistency study, only 25.2% of the brands ChatGPT named for a question appeared in all five repeats.
Our inference for packaging: the trust factors are the ones a packaging engineer already checks, written where a machine can read them. That means materials and structures by name, barrier and food-contact information, recyclability and recycled-content claims with the evidence behind them, PFAS status, certifications such as FSC or BRCGS with the issuing body named, print methods, minimums, lead times and plant locations. Trade press features, packaging awards and case studies published with a customer’s permission give an assistant outside sources to confirm those claims.
Why do sustainability rules make AI visibility more urgent?
Because new rules are pushing brands to redesign packs and, in many cases, to look for new suppliers now.
In Europe, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation entered into force on 11 February 2025 and generally applies from 12 August 2026. The European Commission summary says all packaging must be recyclable and that recyclability performance grades apply from 2030. Brand owners are already reacting: in L.E.K.’s European brand owner survey (opens in a new tab) of about 400 companies, the desire to move to sustainable packaging was the most-cited reason for changing primary packaging materials, at 43%, and 39% expected the sustainable share of their packaging to rise by 2030.
In the US, packaging EPR laws shift the cost of recycling from local governments to producers. Mayer Brown (opens in a new tab) lists California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon and Washington as states with EPR statutes, and notes that in Washington nonmembers cannot sell their products after March 2029. L.E.K. expects Oregon’s program to deploy more than $700 million in its first 2.5 years, with fees set by material so that harder-to-recycle materials pay more. The law firm also points out that packaging makers should expect EPR to change the types of packaging their customers buy.
For a supplier, every one of these rules creates questions a buyer may put to an assistant: which formats are recyclable, which materials carry lower fees, which suppliers can provide the data a producer must report. This article is not compliance advice, and buyers should confirm obligations with counsel. Our point is narrower: a supplier whose site explains, accurately and with sources, how its materials relate to these rules gives an assistant something to cite when the question comes up.
What does a packaging supplier lose when AI leaves it out?
It loses quote requests it never sees, during a period when many brands are redesigning packs and adding suppliers.
We found no public measurement of quote requests lost to AI absence, so the reasoning is ours:
- Redesign is near-universal. With roughly 99% of US brand owners expecting packaging changes within three years, many will look beyond their current suppliers for materials or formats they do not yet buy.
- Supply is moving home. As imported packaging falls toward 10% of the total, brands need domestic suppliers they may never have used. A supplier absent from the first list is absent from the comparison.
- Wrong facts filter you out. An assistant that says you lack food-contact approval, cannot print digitally or have a minimum of 50,000 units, when you do not, removes you from a shortlist you never knew about. Our guide to fixing wrong brand information in AI answers explains how to trace an error to the page it came from.
How does GEO work for a packaging company?
Generative engine optimization (GEO) helps AI assistants find, describe and verify your materials, capabilities and compliance facts.
For a packaging supplier, the work usually includes:
- Material and application pages in plain text. One page per structure or format, stating substrates, barrier levels, food-contact status, recyclability evidence, print methods, sizes, minimums and lead times. Spec sheets locked in PDFs or images are harder for assistants and buyers to use. Chemical makers face the same spec-sheet problem, covered in how chemical suppliers reach formulators through AI.
- Compliance facts with sources. Plain explanations of how your formats relate to state EPR programs and the EU regulation, with dates and links to the official texts, written as information rather than legal advice.
- Certifications that match the register. Each certification named with its scope and issuing body, matching what the certifier publishes.
- One consistent identity. The same company name, plant addresses, capabilities and minimums on your site, Thomasnet and other directories, LinkedIn and trade association listings.
- Independent coverage. Packaging trade press features, award entries, conference talks and customer case studies published with permission. Our article on how small brands get recommended by AI explains why those outside sources can outweigh a supplier’s own pages.
- Honest comparison content. Clear answers to “paper or plastic for this use,” “mono-material or multilayer,” and “domestic or imported,” without attacking rivals. Our review of whether comparison pages help B2B brands get cited covers what such pages can and cannot do.
- Crawl access and measurement. Allow the search crawlers the assistants document, then ask a fixed set of material, application and compliance questions across ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Copilot and Google’s AI features, repeatedly, and compare who is named with the quote requests you receive.
No one can promise that an assistant will name a supplier. The work makes your company the easiest one for an assistant, and then a packaging engineer, to check.
Which questions about packaging and AI search remain open?
The data shows brand owners using AI in sourcing, not how many quote requests or awards AI answers produce.
- Adoption is not attribution. L.E.K. measures AI use in procurement and sourcing, not whether public assistants named the suppliers that won. We found no public data linking AI answers to packaging quote volume.
- Tools are unspecified. “AI in sourcing” may mean internal analytics, supplier platforms or public assistants. The surveys do not separate them.
- Cross-industry studies. The engineering survey and our own studies cover many industries. Applying them to packaging is our inference.
- Rules are still moving. EPR timelines can slip, as Mayer Brown notes for California, and Oregon’s program faces federal litigation, according to L.E.K. Claims about compliance need regular review.
Contract manufacturers face the same longlist problem from the production side, covered in our guide on how contract manufacturers win RFQs through AI search. For the warehousing and fulfillment side, see how 3PLs make a shipper’s AI shortlist.
Where should a packaging supplier start?
Start by asking assistants the material, application and compliance questions your best customers would ask.
That first check shows whether your company is named for your core formats and materials, whether your minimums, plants and certifications are described correctly, which directories and articles the answers rely on, and which suppliers appear in your place. The work then is to publish those facts where assistants read them and to earn the outside coverage that confirms them.
If your growth depends on winning new formats and secondary-supplier slots with brand owners, talk to us about a packaging visibility review. We will show how assistants answer the sourcing questions your buyers ask, why other suppliers are named, and which changes are most likely to bring more qualified quote requests. How we handle the ongoing material, compliance and directory work for converters and distributors is set out on our generative engine optimization service page.
Frequently asked questions
Do brand owners really use AI to choose packaging suppliers?
They use AI in sourcing: about 69% of US brand owners in L.E.K.’s 2026 study had adopted AI in procurement and sourcing. The study does not show how often public assistants name the supplier that wins.
Is a stock packaging distributor in the same position as a custom converter?
Not quite. Stock buyers often ask about price, availability and delivery speed, while custom buyers ask about materials, printing and minimums. Both need those facts stated in plain text, consistently, across their own site and directories.
Should we publish our sustainability claims for AI to read?
Publish only claims you can support, with the evidence and the standard named. Assistants can repeat what they find, so an unsupported recyclability claim can spread errors and create regulatory risk.
Will AI search replace packaging sales reps?
No. Samples, artwork, line trials and pricing still need people. AI can change which suppliers a buyer contacts first.
Sources
- L.E.K. Consulting (2026-04-13), L.E.K. Consulting 2026 CPG and Foodservice Brand Owner Packaging Study (opens in a new tab)
- L.E.K. Consulting (2026-04-13), Brand Owners Are Embracing Digital and AI in Packaging (opens in a new tab)
- L.E.K. Consulting (2026-04-13), Brand Owners Have Shock-Proofed Their Sourcing Strategies (opens in a new tab)
- L.E.K. Consulting (2026-06-08), European Brand Owner Packaging Survey 2026: Sustainability (opens in a new tab)
- L.E.K. Consulting (2026-07-02), The EPR Inflection Point: Understanding the Impact of EPR Regulations (opens in a new tab)
- European Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform (2026-04-06), The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation: when will it come into effect and what does it cover? (opens in a new tab)
- Mayer Brown (2026-02-03), EPR Packaging Laws Moving from Concept to Compliance (opens in a new tab)
- Smithers (2025-07), Smithers Forecasts Tariffs to Reshape $1.5 Trillion Global Packaging Market by 2030 (opens in a new tab)
- Distribution Strategy Group (2026-01-30), Industrial Sourcing Behavior Shifts in 2025 (Thomas 2025 Annual Sourcing Activity Report) (opens in a new tab)
- GlobalSpec and TREW Marketing (2026), State of Marketing to Engineers research report (opens in a new tab)
- Forrester (2026-01-21), Forrester’s 2026 Buyer Insights: GenAI Is Upending B2B Buying (opens in a new tab)
- OpenAI Help Center (2026), ChatGPT search (opens in a new tab)
- Google (2025-03-05), Expanding AI Overviews and introducing AI Mode (opens in a new tab)
- Underneath (2026), Does rewording a question change AI brand recommendations?
- Underneath (2026), The hidden searches AI assistants run before they answer
- Underneath (2026), Do Wikipedia and schema make AI assistants recommend a brand?
- Underneath (2026), Ask an AI the same question 5 times: do the brands change?